Population projection

What might happen to Estonia's population in the next few decade and what will be the percentage of children, young people, working- and retirement-aged people in the population? Population projections show how the composition of the population is likely to change in a certain time span.

When preparing population projections, current trends in births, deaths and migration are extended to the future. However, many variables need to be taken into account, such as the number of children and the age of mothers, mortality in different age groups, the age distribution of the migrating population and how all these factors change over time. Also, the developments in countries that are demographically similar to Estonia and how scientists from international statistical organisations (UN, Eurostat) predict Estonia’s demographic future are taken into consideration. Even if there is a steady change, there are always alternatives, not to mention unexpected crises in Estonia or in the neighbouring countries that may affect trends. For this reason, there are various scenarios developed for population projections. Population projections do not aim to predict economic, health or security crises; this is not the goal. 

In making population projections, the population of each following year is calculated on the basis of birth rate, mortality and migration trends by sex and age.

The population projections show

• how the population will change;
• what the number of births and deaths will be in Estonia;
• the future age composition of the population, i.e. the percentage of children, young people, women in fertile age, working- and retirement-aged people;
• the impact of external migration.