Population

The purpose of the statistical activity is to provide information on the composition, changes, and regional distribution of the population. This information is needed for state governance and research that supports decision-making.

Population number, structure and distribution: the size of the population, its age, sex, and ethnic composition, as well as its distribution across regions;
main population indicators: births, deaths, natural increase, net migration, life expectancy;
population projections: forecasts of population development based on trends in birth rates, mortality, and migration

Codes for the Representation of Names of Languages (ISO 639-2) (more information: Classification of Languages (2020));

International Standard Classification of Education (ISCED-2011) (more information: National Standard Classification of Education (2011));

International Standard Codes for the Representation of the Names of Countries (ISO 3166) (more information: Classification of countries and territories (2021));

Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS 2021) (more information: Classification of Territorial Units for Statistics);

Classification of Estonian administrative units and settlements (EHAK) (more information: Classification of Estonian administrative units and settlements);

Classification of Ethnicities (more information: Classification of Ethnicities (2013)).

Statistics Estonia manages classifications in accordance with the Official Statistics Act. The statistical classifications maintained by Statistics Estonia and used in the production of official statistics are available in Statistics Estonia's Classifications Portal.

Not applicable

Age – the age of the person in full years at the time of the event, i.e. the age at last birthday. The age of children under 1 year of age is 0 years.

Citizenship – a permanent legal relationship between a person and the country that he or she is a citizen of. Citizenship is acquired by birth or naturalisation, whether by declaration, choice, marriage, or other means according to national legislation.

Country of permanent residence – the country where a person has continuously lived for at least 12 months, or where the person intends to live for at least 12 months

Country of birth – mother’s country of residence at the time of the child’s birth. For foreign-born, the country of birth is indicated by the state border at the time of survey. Persons born before 1945 in Pechory county or the former territory of the Republic of Estonia east of the Narva River were considered to be born in Estonia.

Educational level (educational attainment) – the highest level of education that an person has completed in the formal education system (general education school, vocational school, or university). Educational attainment is presented in accordance with the International Standard Classification of Education (ISCED 2011).

Emigration – a person's departure from the place of residence; in the case of external migration, a person's departure from Estonia and settlement abroad; in the case of internal migration, a person's departure from one administrative unit, settlement unit, or settlement region in Estonia to another

Ethnic nationality – a person's belonging to an ethnic group based on self-determination of the person. A child’s ethnic nationality is determined by the parents; if a child’s (aged 0–17) ethnic nationality is not available in the population register, the mother’s ethnic nationality is assigned to the child.

Immigration – the arrival of a person at a place of residence. In the case of external migration, arrival in Estonia from a foreign country; in the case of internal migration, arrival from an administrative unit, settlement unit or settlement region in Estonia.

Legal marital status – persons aged 15 years and over are divided by (legal) marital status as follows:
- never been legally married – a person who has never been legally married;
- legally married – a person whose marriage is legal and has not terminated due to spouse’s death or divorce; A person can also be legally married if he or she does not live with the spouse. Only a marriage between a man and a woman is considered legal in this context;
- divorced – a person whose (previous) legal marriage terminated due to registration of divorce and who has not entered into a new legal marriage;
- widowed – a person whose (previous) legal marriage terminated due to death of the spouse (incl. being declared dead in court) and who has not entered into a new legal marriage.

Life expectancy – the mean additional number of years that a person of a given age can expect to live, if subjected throughout the rest of his or her life to the current mortality conditions. At the age of 0 – the life expectancy at birth (see also the definition of “life table”).

Life table – a numerical model (table of numerical values of age-dependent functions) which measures through interrelated indicators the mortality level in a certain period

Migration – change of place of residence from one unit to another. In migration, a distinction is made between moves from one country to another, one county to another, across borders of urban settlements within municipality and across borders of settlement regions.

Mean annual population – arithmetic mean of the population number at the beginning of the year and at the end of the year (beginning of the next year), rounded to a whole number. Used in the calculation of rates associated with vital events during a year.

Natural increase – the difference between the number of live births and deaths during one year. Natural increase is positive when the number of live births is larger than the number of deaths and negative when number of deaths exceeds the number of births.

Net migration – difference in the number of immigration and emigration events

Origin – the division of Estonia's population into native and foreign-origin populations. The native population comprises permanent residents of Estonia with at least one parent and at least one grandparent born in Estonia. The foreign-origin population comprises permanent residents of Estonia who do not belong to the native population. The foreign-origin population has been divided into the first, second, and third generations according to the country of birth of the person, his/her parents, and/or grandparents:
- first generation of foreign-origin population – permanent residents of Estonia who themselves and whose parents were born abroad;
- second generation of foreign-origin population – permanent residents of Estonia who were born in Estonia but whose parents were born abroad;
- third generation of foreign-origin population – permanent residents of Estonia with at least one parent born in Estonia, but all grandparents born abroad.

Place of residence – the area or settlement where the person lives permanently or most of the time

Settlement region – a territorial unit consisting of settlements with the same population density. Settlement regions are divided into city settlement regions, town settlement regions, and rural settlement regions based on population density and population figure. In the case of a division into two, city and town settlement regions are added.
- City settlement region – a type of settlement (a city, town, or village) where most inhabitants live in regions with population density greater than 1,000 inhabitants per km² and where the population figure in a cluster of such density is greater than 5,000 inhabitants.
- Rural settlement region – a type of settlement (a city, town, or village) where population density is lower than 200 inhabitants per km² or a region with higher population density where the population figure is under 5,000 inhabitants.
- Town settlement region – a type of settlement (a city, town, or village) where most inhabitants live in regions with population density of 200–1,000 inhabitants per km² and where the population figure in a cluster of this density is greater than 5,000, but it does not constitute a city settlement region.

Source country – immigrant's previous country of residence.

More information: Methodology for determining variables in population statistics.

Crude rates:
age-specific fertility rate – the number of live births per 1,000 women in the same age group per year (based on mean annual population);
age-specific death rate – the number of deaths per 1,000 inhabitants of a specific age group per year (based on mean annual population);
general fertility rate – the number of live births per 1,000 women aged 15–49 per year (based on mean annual population);
crude birth rate – the number of live births per 1,000 inhabitants per year (based on mean annual population);
crude death rate – the number of deaths per 1,000 inhabitants per year (based on mean annual population);
crude rate of natural increase – the difference between the number of live births and the number of deaths per 1,000 mean annual population. Calculated as the difference between the crude birth rate and the crude death rate;
standardised death rate – a death rate calculated using an internationally agreed standard age-sex distribution to eliminate the effect of the population's actual age-sex distribution on mortality indicators. Until 2014, the age-sex distribution of the European Standard Population (published in 1976) was used. Since then, the standard age-sex distribution published in 2013 has been used.

More information: Mathematical formulas used in population statistics.

Person – for all population data tables;

events – for data tables of vital events (live births, deaths, marriages, divorces, and migration)

Usually resident population of Estonia

According to Regulation (EU) 1260/2013 of the European Parliament and of the Council, articles 2(c) and 2(d), ‘usually resident population’ means all persons having their usual residence in Estonia at the reference time. 'Usual residence’ is the place where a person normally spends the daily period of rest, regardless of temporary absences for purposes of recreation, holidays, visits to friends and relatives, business, medical treatment, or religious pilgrimage. The following persons alone shall be considered to be usual residents of a specific geographical area:
- those who have lived in their place of usual residence for a continuous period of at least 12 months before the reference time; or
- those who arrived in their place of usual residence during the 12 months before the reference time with the intention of staying there for at least one year.

Usually resident population is determined using the residency index – a methodology based on the sign-of-life approach. More information: Implementation of the residency index in demographic statistics.

Usually resident population includes all population groups with enough of the so-called signs of life during the reference year. This includes people without a permanent address (e.g. the homeless), asylum seekers, refugees, and people under temporary protection.

Estonia as a whole

1919–…

Not applicable

Official Statistics Act;

Regulation (EU) No 1260/2013 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 20 November 2013 on European demographic statistics (Text with EEA relevance);

Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) No 205/2014 of 4 March 2014 laying down uniformed conditions for the implementation of Regulation (EU) No 1260/2013 of the European Parliament and the Council on European demographic statistics, as regards breakdowns of data, deadlines and data revisions

None

News items can be viewed on Statistics Estonia's website in the section News.

News releases:
January – population estimates;
April – final population data;
May – life expectancy and disability-free life years.

Not published

Data are published in the statistical database under the subject area Population / Population indicators and composition / Main demographic indicators in tables RV045–RV046 and under the subject area Population / Population indicators and composition / Population figure and composition in tables RV021–RV085.

Discontinued datasets RV02111–RV092 are under the subject area Discontinued datasets / Population. Archive / Population indicators and composition. Archive.

Data tables on population statistics (including population projections) in Statistics Estonia's database were viewed
113,076 times in 2024,
101,624 times in 2023,
99,953 times in 2022,
106,946 times in 2021,
134,704 times in 2020,
152,175 times in 2019 and
137,903 times in 2018.

Each table view is counted as a separate viewing. This is based on the database URLs, which show that the data have been selected and the table formed.

The dissemination of data collected for the purpose of producing official statistics is guided by the requirements provided for in § 33, § 34, § 35, § 36, § 38 of the Official Statistics Act.

Legal persons and organisations can use for research confidential data held by Statistics Estonia. The data can be used remotely in a research environment.
Access can be requested here: Use of confidential data for scientific purposes.
Processing of personal data of special categories is also subject to authorisation by the ethics committee and/or the Data Protection Inspectorate.

Data serve as input for statistical activities 30201 “Vital events. Marriages”, 30202 “Vital events. Divorces”, 30203 “Vital events. Spontaneous and induced abortions”, 30204 “Vital events. Migration“, 30205 “Vital events. Deaths and causes of death”, 30206 “Vital events. Births”, 41001 “Social exclusion – Laeken indicators”, 50101 “Regional development”, and 50201 “Sustainable development indicators”.

The data are transmitted to Eurostat and other international organisations in aggregated form, respecting confidentiality principles. The data delivered to Eurostat are published in Eurostat's database under the heading Population.

The metadata related to the statistical activity were viewed 551 times (1 January 2024 – 31 December 2024). This figure does not represent the number of viewers, as the metadata may have been viewed multiple times by a single user.

Implementation of the residency index in demographic statistics;

Implementation of the partnership and location index in demographic statistics;

Mathematical formulas in population statistics;

2024 population projection until 2085;

2019 population projection until 2080;

Methodology for establishing city, town and rural settlement region types and clusters

In addition: Description of the 2021 register-based census methodology

The total population frame, as well as the methodologies and data sources used for compiling information on individuals are the same in population statistics as in the 2021 register-based census. The methodology for defining the total population frame, as described in the document, has been used in population statistics since 2016 (see also: Implementation of the residency index in demographic statistics), while the methodology for determining the place of usual residence has been applied since 2022 (see also: Implementation of the partnership and location index in demographic statistics). The methodology and data sources for calculating other individual characteristics have evolved somewhat over the years, but since 2022, they have been the same as those described in the 2021 register-based census methodology document.

This statistical activity is guided by the European Statistics Code of Practice – revised edition, 2017.

Survey-based source data are not used in this statistical activity, i.e. no survey is conducted. Also, data from other statistical activities are not used as input.

Administrative data sources:
ADS – address data system of the Land and Spatial Data Development Board;
ARIREG – Commercial Register;
EHIS – Estonian Education Information System;
EHR – National Register of Buildings;
EMPIS – Estonian Unemployment Information System;
EMSR – Estonian Medical Birth Register;
e-toimik – e-File system;
ETR – Register of Residence and Work Permits;
KIR – Prisoners’ Register;
KIRST – Health Insurance Information System;
KMAIS – Identity Documents Database;
KOPIS – Mandatory Funded Pension Register;
KR – Land Register;
KVKR – National Defence Obligation Register;
MKR – Register of Taxable Persons;
RAKS – Register of Granting International Protection;
RETS – Estonian Medical Prescription Centre;
RR – Population Register;
SAP – State Personnel and Payroll Database;
SKAIS – Social Security Information System;
SPR – Causes of Death Register;
STAR – Social Services and Benefits Registry;
TETRIS – Database of Work Ability Assessment and Work Ability Allowance;
Traffic Register
TÖR – Employment Register;
Data warehouse of Elering.

More information: Published characteristics with sources (in Estonian),
Description of the 2021 register-based census methodology

The administrative data sources used in population statistics coincide with those used in the 2021 register-based population and housing census.

Year;

month;

day

Administrative data are received via X-Tee, an FTP-server, and by email.

Upon receipt of the data, pseudonymisation is performed immediately to ensure the security of data processing and the protection of personal data.
Subsequently, data checks and validation are performed to identify potential deficiencies or errors and to ensure the quality and reliability of the data.

For more information on data validation, see "Data validation".

Data are validated in two stages: first, the quality of input data is checked and then the output is assessed.

In the first stage, the quality of input data received from various sources (see "Data sources") is assessed. This involves measuring the percentage of missing data for each topic to identify potential gaps. Qualitative controls are also applied to detect logical errors and ensure the data are consistent with expected patterns.

In the second stage, the compiled aggregate output statistics are validated. Topic-specific results are compared with data from previous periods to identify inconsistencies or unusual trends. Where possible, results are cross-referenced with survey-based data sources, such as the Labour Force Survey or the 2011 population census.

The outputs are also validated in Eurostat's data transmission program EDAMIS in which the checks monitor whether valid codes and ranges are used and assess the consistency between a variable entry and allowed entries.

Principles of data processing:
- the population is formed at person level, applying a specific method (residency index) to data in various registers. The residency index is used to find the probability of residing in Estonia for each person. The features necessary to identify each person are found by using the different registers in a specific priority order.;
- when multiple data sources are used for a particular topic, they are applied in a specific priority order, which is defined separately for each subject;
- document-based data sources are preferred to statement-based ones;
- for certain topics, age checks are performed when assigning information from data sources. For example, age checks are applied to education data, which means that if the level of education reported in the source is inconsistent with the person’s age, this information is disregarded.

More information: Description of the 2021 register-based census methodology.

In most cases, there is no need to impute values as the quality of the input data is good.

Two models are used in population statistics: the residency index and the partnership and location index. The first determines the usually resident population, while the second defines the place of usual residence in Estonia. Both models are used to ensure compliance with the definitions in Regulation (EU) 1260/2013 of the European Parliament and of the Council.

Implementation of the residency index in demographic statistics
According to Regulation (EU) No 1260/2013 on European demographic statistics, articles 2(c) and 2(d), the following persons shall be considered to be usual residents of a specific geographical area:
- those who have lived in their place of usual residence for a continuous period of at least 12 months before the reference time; or
- those who arrived in their place of usual residence during the 12 months before the reference time with the intention of staying there for at least one year.

The residency index is used to assess the probability of each person residing in Estonia. The necessary features to identify each person are extracted from various registers in a specific priority order. A more detailed description of the model can be found in Section 3.6. Statistical Population. This model has been applied in population statistics since 2016.

An alternative register-based (i.e. not survey-based) approach would be to define usually resident population as the population registered in the Population Register. However, this would lead to an underestimation of migration in annual population statistics, as a significant amount of immigration and emigration is not registered in the Population Register. This includes individuals who move abroad but do not update their address in the Population Register and those who move to Estonia but fail to register their residence.

Implementation of the partnership and location index in demographic statistics
According to Regulation (EU) No 1260/2013 on European demographic statistics, articles 2(c) and 2(d), ‘usual residence’ is the place where a person normally spends the daily period of rest, irrespective of temporary absences for purposes such as recreation, holidays, visits to friends and relatives, business, medical treatment, or religious pilgrimage.

In Estonian population statistics, usual residence is the (habitable) dwelling with which a person and their family members were most strongly associated during the reference period (the year prior to the reference date). The association with dwellings is calculated based on the addresses reported in various state registers and the locations related to daily activities (such as school, kindergarten, workplace, etc.). If a person has a family, all family members share a common usual residence. For a single person, the usual residence is considered to be the habitable dwelling with which the person had the strongest connection during the previous year. The partnership and location index has been used in population statistics since 2022.

An alternative register-based (i.e. not survey-based) approach would be to define usual residence as the place of residence recorded in the Population Register. However, it is well known that many people do not actually live at their registered address. Since usual residence also serves as the basis for dwelling-based household statistics (persons living at the same address form one household), using only registered addresses would distort household and family statistics, as well as population distribution data. Studies conducted in preparation for the 2021 census showed that lone-parent households would be most affected, as family members may be registered at different addresses (e.g. a summer house or a second home).

A survey conducted in 2018 assessed the quality of both models. The results are available here: A survey to assess the quality of the methodology (in Estonian).

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