In June, the confidence of industrial enterprises declined, while assessments in other sectors and among consumers improved slightly

In June, the enterprises’ confidence indicator was the highest in trade (+20.5); it was +3.1 in the services sector and -3.8 in the industry sector. The confidence indicator was the lowest in the construction sector (-12), where insufficient demand was considered the main factor limiting construction activity. The consumer confidence indicator was -29 in June.

Month on month, confidence improved among consumers as well as among enterprises in the trade, construction and services sectors. Assessments by industry sector enterprises were somewhat more pessimistic.

A more detailed look at the trade survey questionnaire data revealed that, compared with the previous month, the assessment of the question “How do you expect the prices you charge to change over the next 3 months?” has changed significantly. While in May the respondents’ aggregate assessment of this question was 42.3 percentage points (prices will rise over the next three months), in June the average assessment was that prices will fall (aggregate assessment -8.1 percentage points). The main factor behind this assessment is that, in June, one retail enterprise with a large number of employees was added to the respondents.

“The participants in the business and consumer surveys, including enterprises, are selected on the basis of random sampling, and the results are weighted so that they reflect the opinion of the population as accurately as possible. The calculation of the weights is based on how many people work at the enterprise, and therefore the responses of larger enterprises have a greater impact on the final result,” explained Kaire Raasik, Head of the Economic and Environmental Statistics Department at Statistics Estonia, while emphasising that a greater weight does not mean that the survey results are shaped solely by the opinion of large enterprises. “To get an accurate picture of what is happening in the Estonian economy, the surveys include enterprises with both a larger and a smaller number of employees, and the assessment of each of them matters,” she added.

The above question about goods prices is not used to calculate the confidence indicator for trade sector enterprises. The indicator is based on the arithmetic average of the balances of the assessment of the enterprise’s current business activity (sales), the business activity (sales) forecast, and the assessment of stocks (taken with the reversed sign). A more detailed example of the calculation can be found in the business survey methodology under point S.3.4 “Statistical concepts and definitions”.

The business and consumer surveys reflect economic confidence in four business sectors and among consumers. A confidence indicator is calculated for each sector based on the survey responses; these indicators are used for economic forecasting and international comparisons, among other things. In June, invitations to participate in the survey were sent to 6,462 individuals (including 2,000 respondents for phone interviews) and 1,450 enterprises in the trade, industry, services and construction sectors.

The survey data are available in the Statistics Estonia database to analysts, policymakers, the media and all other interested parties. In addition, a more detailed description of the methodology of the consumer survey and the business surveys is available on our website. Quarterly short overviews will be published from autumn by the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications.

The next survey round begins on 1 July. More information about the surveys is available on our website:

Consumer Survey

Business Survey

The business and consumer surveys are co-financed under the Joint Harmonised European Union Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, pursuant to the Framework Partnership Agreement BCS-2025-FPA and Specific Grant Agreement BCS-2025-SGA.

For further information:

Annaliisa Köss
Media Relations Partner
Marketing and Dissemination Department
Statistics Estonia
Tel +372 5696 6484
press [at] stat.ee (press[at]stat[dot]ee)

_{Photo: Shutterstock}