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According to Statistics Estonia's preliminary estimate, the decline in the gross domestic product (GDP) slowed down in the second quarter of 2024. GDP fell by approximately 1.7% compared with the second quarter of 2023.

Robert Müürsepp, the National Accounts Service Manager at Statistics Estonia, said that the flash estimate indicates a slight improvement in the economy compared with the fourth quarter of 2024, while the trend was unchanged compared with the third quarter of 2025. “The seasonally and working-day adjusted GDP remained at the same level as in the third quarter,” added Müürsepp. What is the flash estimate of GDP? The official data on GDP for the fourth quarter of 2025 will be published on 2 March, but it is possible to assess the overall economic trend based on the information already available

Robert Müürsepp, team lead of national accounts at Statistics Estonia, noted that initial signs indicate a slight improvement in the economy compared with both a year ago and the previous quarter. “The seasonally and working-day adjusted GDP was up by 0.2% from the second quarter of 2025,” Müürsepp added. What is a flash estimate of GDP? The official data on GDP for the third quarter will be published on 1 December, but based on the information already available, it is possible to assess the overall economic trend. This is done using, for example, trade indicators, transport and manufacturing

“According to the GDP flash estimate, there are several indications of economic improvement in the first quarter, compared with both the first and the last quarter of 2025,” said Robert Müürsepp, the National Accounts Service Manager at Statistics Estonia. Compared with the fourth quarter of 2025, the seasonally and working-day adjusted GDP grew by 0.6% according to the flash estimate. What is a flash estimate of GDP? The official data on GDP for the first quarter of 2026 will be published by Statistics Estonia on 29 May, but based on the information already available, it is possible to assess

The monthly surveys allow the regular assessment of current economic tendencies and are also used for forecasting. “Among other things, the economic sentiment surveys reveal whether Estonian households are able to save money or whether they can afford to make major purchases. The business surveys show how enterprises in the construction, industry, trade and services sectors are doing, and which factors influence their performance,” explained Kaire Raasik, Head of the Economic and Environmental Statistics Department at Statistics Estonia. The data collected with the business and consumer

“Compared with the first quarter of 2025, the seasonally and working-day adjusted GDP was up by 0.5%,” stated Robert Müürsepp, team lead of national accounts at Statistics Estonia. According to Müürsepp, it is too early to say how the consumer price index adjustment will affect GDP calculations. “It is highly unlikely that it will have a significant impact,” he said. What is a flash estimate of GDP? Although the official GDP figure will be released on 29 August, the information currently available can be used to assess the overall economic situation. This includes trade indicators, transport

Robert Müürsepp, team lead of national accounts at Statistics Estonia, said that the improvement in Estonian economy continued in the first quarter of 2025. “Compared with the first quarter of 2024, the GDP increased by 1.2%. Compared with the fourth quarter of 2024, the seasonally and working-day adjusted GDP was up by 0.1%,” explained Müürsepp. Statistics Estonia will publish GDP data for the first quarter of 2025 on 30 May . The GDP flash estimate is prepared using statistical models and it is not methodologically comparable to the official GDP time series. See the GDP flash estimate in the

The business and consumer surveys reflect economic confidence in four business sectors and among consumers. A confidence indicator* is calculated for each sector based on the survey responses. These indicators are used for economic forecasting and international comparisons, among other things. The results of the May survey show that the confidence indicator was the highest in the trade sector (+14). The confidence indicator was -0.1 for the services sector and -0.9 for the industry sector. The construction sector had the lowest confidence indicator (-17.1), with insufficient demand cited as

Robert Müürsepp, team lead of national accounts at Statistics Estonia, said that the preliminary estimate shows signs of improvement in the Estonian economy in the fourth quarter of last year. “There was no more major recession, as the seasonally and working-day adjusted GDP remained unchanged from the third quarter of 2024. Compared with the fourth quarter of 2023, the economy contracted only slightly,” noted Müürsepp. Statistics Estonia will publish GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2024 on 3 March . See also the GDP flash estimate in the statistical database . Learn more about national