GDP flash estimate: the economy grew by 2.2% in Q3
According to the preliminary estimate of Statistics Estonia, in the third quarter of 2026, the gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 2.2% compared with the same period of 2025.
Robert Müürsepp, the National Accounts Service Manager at Statistics Estonia, said that several indicators point to the broad-based strengthening of the economy. “According to the GDP flash estimate, the rate of economic growth was slightly faster in the third quarter – both year on year and compared with the previous quarter,” noted Müürsepp.
Compared with the second quarter of 2026, the seasonally and working-day adjusted GDP grew by 0.6% in the third quarter according to the flash estimate.
Flash estimate of GDP, at constant prices and seasonally and working-day adjusted, 3rd quarter 2021 – 3rd quarter 2026
| Flash estimate of GDP, real growth y/y | |
|---|---|
| 3rd quarter 2021 | 7.2 |
| 4th quarter 2021 | 5.7 |
| 1st quarter 2022 | 2.7 |
| 2nd quarter 2022 | -0.4 |
| 3rd quarter 2022 | -0.9 |
| 4th quarter 2022 | -3.2 |
| 1st quarter 2023 | -3.8 |
| 2nd quarter 2023 | -3.0 |
| 3rd quarter 2023 | -2.5 |
| 4th quarter 2023 | -3.0 |
| 1st quarter 2024 | -2.1 |
| 2nd quarter 2024 | -1.7 |
| 3rd quarter 2024 | -0.7 |
| 4th quarter 2024 | -0.1 |
| 1st quarter 2025 | 1.2 |
| 2nd quarter 2025 | 0.5 |
| 3rd quarter 2025 | 0.9 |
| 4th quarter 2025 | 1.0 |
| 1st quarter 2026 | 1.3 |
| 2nd quarter 2026 | 2.1 |
| 3rd quarter 2026 | 2.2 |
What is a flash estimate of GDP?
The official data on GDP for the third quarter of 2026 will be published by Statistics Estonia on 30 November, but based on the information already available, it is possible to assess the overall economic trend. This is done using, for example, trade indicators, transport and manufacturing statistics, tax declarations, energy production indicators and price data, on the basis of which several models of the Estonian economy are created. This process is called econometric modelling, which attempts to link the seasonality and trends of the economy with indicators that could in turn describe the state of the economy.
The flash estimate, however, assumes that economic trends and structures will remain stable. Also, the initial data used in the models might not cover certain major transactions that could have a big impact on the overall indicators due to the small size of Estonia’s economy.
As the GDP flash estimate is prepared using statistical models, it is not methodologically comparable to the official GDP, which takes into account all economic transactions.
See the GDP flash estimate in the statistical database. Learn more about national accounts.
When using Statistics Estonia’s data and graphs, please indicate the source.
For further information:
Kai Kaljumäe
Communications Partner
Marketing and Dissemination Department
Statistics Estonia
Tel +372 5696 6484
press [at] stat.ee (press[at]stat[dot]ee)