GDP flash estimate: economy grew by 1% in Q4
According to Statistics Estonia’s preliminary estimate, the gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 1% in the fourth quarter of 2025 year on year.
Robert Müürsepp, the National Accounts Service Manager at Statistics Estonia, said that the flash estimate indicates a slight improvement in the economy compared with the fourth quarter of 2024, while the trend was unchanged compared with the third quarter of 2025. “The seasonally and working-day adjusted GDP remained at the same level as in the third quarter,” added Müürsepp.
Flash estimate of GDP, at constant prices and seasonally and working-day adjusted
| Flash estimate of GDP, real growth y/y | |
|---|---|
| 3rd quarter 2021 | 7.2 |
| 4th quarter 2021 | 5.7 |
| 1st quarter 2022 | 2.7 |
| 2nd quarter 2022 | -0.4 |
| 3rd quarter 2022 | -0.9 |
| 4th quarter 2022 | -3.2 |
| 1st quarter 2023 | -3.8 |
| 2nd quarter 2023 | -3.0 |
| 3rd quarter 2023 | -2.5 |
| 4th quarter 2023 | -3.0 |
| 1st quarter 2024 | -2.1 |
| 2nd quarter 2024 | -1.7 |
| 3rd quarter 2024 | -0.7 |
| 4th quarter 2024 | -0.1 |
| 1st quarter 2025 | 1.2 |
| 2nd quarter 2025 | 0.5 |
| 3rd quarter 2025 | 0.9 |
| 4th quarter 2025 | 1.0 |
What is the flash estimate of GDP?
The official data on GDP for the fourth quarter of 2025 will be published on 2 March, but it is possible to assess the overall economic trend based on the information already available. This is done using, for example, trade indicators, transport and manufacturing statistics, tax declarations, energy production indicators, and price data, on the basis of which several models of the Estonian economy are created. This process is called econometric modelling, which attempts to link the seasonality and trends of the economy with indicators that would describe the state of the economy.
The flash estimate, however, assumes that economic trends and structures will remain stable. Also, the initial data used in the models might not cover certain major transactions that could have a big impact on the overall indicators due to the small size of Estonia’s economy.
As the GDP flash estimate is prepared using statistical models, it is not methodologically comparable to the official GDP, which takes into account all economic transactions
See the GDP flash estimate in the statistical database. Learn more about national accounts.
When using Statistics Estonia’s data and graphs, please indicate the source.
For further information:
Susann Kivi
Media Relations Manager
Marketing and Dissemination Department
Statistics Estonia
Tel +372 5696 6484
press [at] stat.ee (press[at]stat[dot]ee)