Latest UN projection: world population will continue to grow for at least another 60 years
The most populous country is India, and the world's population will continue to increase until at least 2084. This is according to the population projection published by the United Nations in July.
World population: 8,056,505,564
15 November 2022 is considered to be the day the global population crossed the 8 billion mark. According to UN population projection, the world's population will continue to grow for another 60 years, reaching 10.3 billion.
The global population has risen very rapidly. “The world population has doubled during the lifetime of people aged 50 and almost quadrupled during the lifespan of people aged 70 and over,” noted Terje Trasberg, team lead of population and education statistics at Statistics Estonia. However, the newly published UN population projection predicts a slowdown. In its news release, the UN points out that the population is now growing due to the momentum of past rapid growth. The world's fertility rate, which shows the average number of children born per woman, is falling. In 2023, the fertility rate stood at 2.25, almost half of what it was in 1953, when the birth rate was just under 5. “However, there are regions where the number of women of childbearing age, and therefore the number of births, is still rising because of the earlier high birth rate,” stated Trasberg.
A new leader in global population statistics: India
At the beginning of 2023, India became the most populous country in the world, overtaking China, which previously held the title. India's population is projected to continue to grow, whereas that of China peaked in 2021 and is expected to shrink in the years ahead.
India has a population of 1,431,702,948, while China's stands at 1,424,260,946. Together, the two countries account for 35% of the world's population. For comparison: European countries account for 9% of global population.
The USA is the third most populous country in the world. According to Terje Trasberg, it is also the country with the highest net migration. “Every year, there are 1.3 million more people entering than leaving the US,” she said. In terms of positive net migration, Syria ranks second (757,309) and Germany comes third (609,553).
Population projection for Estonia
The population of tiny Estonia accounts for just 0.02% of the entire world's and 0.2% of Europe's population. Statistics Estonia recently published its population projection, which estimates a 12% decline in Estonia's population by 2085.
Comparing the projection prepared by Statistics Estonia and the UN's projection for Estonia, a few differences stand out. The biggest difference appears to be the UN's estimate of migration in Estonia. Namely, the UN estimates Estonia's net migration rate to be balanced, i.e. 0, while Estonia's own projection estimates a net migration of 4,000. “The difference, which also has a significant impact on the projected population figure, is due to the fact that the UN takes into account the average net migration for the years 2000–2021. Estonia's own projection looks back at a shorter period (about 5 years), as Estonia has been a country of immigration since 2015 and this trend is not expected to reverse,” Trasberg explained.
In short, the difference between the UN's and Estonia's own population projections is caused by local changes in trends. The UN projection, prepared for more than 230 countries and regions, cannot take into account the specific features of each country or assess the persistence of local trends. However, the specifics can be considered in the preparation of national projections, with advice from national demographic experts.
More fascinating facts about the world’s population:
The global average life expectancy is 73.2 years, while in Europe it is 79.1 years. Nigeria has the lowest life expectancy at 54.5 years. Life expectancy is high in Monaco (86.4) and Japan (84.7), among others. In Estonia, the average life expectancy at birth is 79 years.
The global fertility rate currently stands at 2.25 births per woman. The highest number of births per woman is seen in Somalia (6.13 on average). There are also countries with less than 1 child born per woman (e.g. South Korea, Singapore, Ukraine).
The people and population figure of Ukraine are being ravaged by war. Between 2022 and 2023, Ukraine's population fell by 6 million. The UN estimates Ukraine's population at the beginning of 2023 at around 38 million. The country’s population peaked in 1993 at 52.4 million. In addition to the decline in population, the average number of children born per woman has fallen below 1 (0.98) during the war period. In 2013, for example, the fertility rate in Ukraine was the same as in Estonia at that time – 1.52 children per woman. Estonia's current fertility rate is 1.31.
The United Nations has been preparing estimates and projections of the world population since 1951. The latest projection data and other materials are available here: https://population.un.org/wpp/.
See also the population projection section and the population pyramid application on our website.
When using Statistics Estonia’s data and graphs, please indicate the source.
For further information:
Heidi Kukk
Media Relations Manager
Marketing and Dissemination Department
Statistics Estonia
Tel +372 625 9181
press [at] stat.ee (press[at]stat[dot]ee)